Win win Solution to the Crisis in Somalia.

(Political facts revealed)

There are many factors contributing to the stagnant political situation in Somalia and the obstacles in the way that hinder tackling these problems.

Majority of us seem to neglect these factors because they hurt our feelings and anxiety to get all of our expectations met. (Every Somali loves to hear a part of the news about a solution to the problems in Somalia that makes him happy and not the portion of the news that touches the reality ) . These factors include :

a) The good and the bad guy phenomenon : The G&B Guy phenomenon works positively in a war between two countries but it never does a good job for a civil war within a country . Since the winners and the losers both belong to the same nation , the effect of the badguy branding on the losers group in the Somali conflict poses a negative effect on the future stability and internal security guarantees of the nation. Somalia’s both the interim government and the UIC fighters are Somali citizens losing lives.

b) Misinterpretation of the intentions of Uncle Sam: Somalia almost lost its sovereignty and existence to zero when the Barre regime was ousted in 1989. Any group that manages to impose its rule on the political power in the country has a golden chance to claim a dynasty of power for ages to come .This greed prompted the lunatic and unsystematic conflict for power ; Any winner group however will need the full assistance and backing of a big power nation ( the US or an EU member) . Do the West provide the service to any group? If yes, at what cost? . It is foolishness to imagine that the Americans , which are the propable foreign power that will be involved in civil wars in foreign countries, are there as international policemen or charity donors. They are in the Horn of Africa region for either short term or long term interest. Mind you, their own national interest and ofcourse they purchase this interest with equally valuable return for the regime partner. All the successful rich Kingdoms in the Gulf Arab region today have managed their success stories through striking mutually benefitable and important deals with the West. If there is no near end & concrete interest for the Americans in the region of HAN today, Their interest could be the grab of the influential power in the region so that it could barter it with other countries that has solid interest in the region.

c) The presence of Ethiopia in Somalia: According to a (traditionally accepted) military strategy concept , Ethiopia, a traditional arch foe neighbour that fought major wars with Somalia , wants to see a new Somali government that will not pose any security threat to its neighbours – i.e

A Somali nation with a national military force much weaker than the nations in the

Region and with a fragile internal political structure that it can tune it with its own

security interests and this literally means that the composition of the government

personalities or the influential figures must be the people Ethiopia sees as unharmful

to its existense ,

A Somali nation that it has a share in all of its internal and external security concerns ,

A Somali nation that does not make a national duty to expand Islam to the region and

consequently induce Ethiopia’s major Islamic community to a political upheaval,

A Somali nation that it controls the foreign allies it is associated with and most

importantly its intentions with regard to the volatile political issues of the fate of the

Somali ethnic groups in the Ethiopia controlled Somali regions who are fighting for

independence. Ethiopia is making a grave mistake.

d) Islamophobia : there is a growing concern and fear of the rise of extreme islamic governments in the region of the Horn of Africa. This fear which became common among many non Moslem nations have unified all the countries in the region and they have the blessing of the USA and EU that they proceed with planned strategy to prevent the emergence of Islamic power in the region. It is easier to fight emerging Islamic Groups than a strong Moslem nation (which they call a militant nation ). This baseless reasoning and phobia drove big nations to support the negligence towards any attempt to find a parmenant solution to the Somalia crisis for many years. The West is making a grave mistake.

e) Abbasynian influence versus Arab influence: Ethiopia’s endeavour to create a friendly government next door is also accompanied by its long term ambition to be an influential power in the region. It also counts on any new friendly government in Somalia that it can utilize Somalia,s long seacoast for its national urgent need for commercial harbour in the future. This dream is not one that goes unchallenged. All eyes are on the region with full but undeclared attention from Egypt that had strong historical ties with Somalia .. Egypt wanted strong Somalia that is in constant collision with Ethiopia that it has to share the consumption of the Nile river and it draws much from Ethiopia’s engagement on its fear from a neighbouring enemy . Ethiopia also fears the emergence of Islamic power that spreads Islamic militancy to its majority but weak muslim population . Eritera , which took independence from Ethiopia and fought a war with it since then , became automatically safe haven for those that oppose the pro Ethiopia government in Mogadishu.. Ethiopia is making a grave mistake.

f) The tribal superiority race : Unfortunately the winning of presidential or ministrial post is seen as the success for the whole or majority of the tribe to better living or powerful hierarchy in the Somali political life. This fact caused that the Somali politicians continue to finance the struggle of fighting inside Somalia inorder for the politician to have a powerful pargaining position during power sharing process. It is unfortunately a reality because any group that neglects this fact and opts for a civilised system and humanitarian considerations will become a weaker group that has little or no value in the Somali political circles. The Somali politicians and their tribal relatives are making a grave mistake.

g) Psychology of wartime safe ruling : It has been a historical culture in Africa that the dictatorial regimes draw time and benefit from engaging their citizens with wars against neighbouring countires or threatening them with an external enemy. There is a high possibility that both regimes in Ethiopia and Somalia see it more fitting to engage any time soon a war inorder to reduce the power of the military or turn the attention of its citizens from the deteriorating administration of their governments . The Dictatorial regimes are making a grave mistake.

These factors all amount unfortunately to the pressure on any government that is determined to return the stability in Somalia .

Unlocking the quiz

For a stable and progressive nation , it is necessary to solve the 18 year old conflict in Sonalia with a situation where all sides involved become partial winners . This means that a sacrifice is also in high demand from these parties . Easier said than done , if we only have to decorate our words with shining colours of optimism and avoid facing the reality. If we mean effective action that produce good results , there is always a stinking odour and we have to withstand the bad smell:

n Somalo-Ethiopian connection : The Horn of African region is stuck with a political theory bequethed from the colonial era . This political theory was however formed to suit the situation and time and more importantly the colonial interests of its designers. Both Ethiopia and Somalia have a long term interest in the peaceful coexistence between the neighbouring peoples and their cooperation in many areas of crucial interest just like the EU , GCC and other member groups. But the private interests of the regimes in control of both countries negate this assumption. The Ethiopians have lived with the belief that a progressive Ethiopia requires a weak & backward Somalia . The reality is that both Ethiopia and Somalia and other regional countries would draw much from cooperation and permanent peace in the region . Secondly the dictatorial regimes in Africa have lived long with the system of frightening its peoples with outside enemy inorder to save their own grip on the power . There is doubt that Ethiopia would be willing to leave Somalia even if the TNG required so because it wrongly believed that since its presence might hinder any strong Somali unity of all tribal groups , it serves Ethiopias national interest . The fact is that by helping realize a new political reality which includes also the allowing of the ethnic groups in the region to hold referendum on the fate of their people and land . The Ethiopian Government must respect the outcome of the choice of the people in the region. This will introduce a new reality to the region that had a tradition of war and fighting . It is time to start a tradtion of cooperation , education and secularism.

n The Interim Government . The TNG should realize that the advantage of the victory from a peace deal negotiation with the UIC fighers over any victory from war confrontation with the fighters inside the country . The peace deal negotiation will include compromisory offers from both sides and benefits to all concerned groups. The Government should try peace offensive instead of war offensives. It may win the support of the West by painting the UIC with terrorism and other names that provoke western repellion but that has little force in making the government function properly for long time and will create a political bone of contention that will be passed to the next generation of Somalia. The TNG should be ready to adopt any method that will give them public support and recognition from all communities of the country .

n The UIC leadership : There are many ways a political target can be reached and if one way does not work , the other option should be tried. The UIC should not only set its eyes on the target but the means and ways to reach it and also the circumstances surrounding it,what compromisory changes required inorder to acheieve the political target. They should realize that the political changes they aim for Somalia has necessary considerations it has to make with the outside world mainly the neighbouring countries . It is a disasterous misunderstanding to assume that in Islam , there is no political ideology to confront an enemy but only a direct war under the banner of Jihad . It can be part of the Jihad when offensive political maneavours are launched that make the enemy indecisive of what the intentions are and peace initiatives that give a strength of re establishment and strategic supremacy . Partial surrender for the sake of the public wellbeing is not always a loss. The UIC must show to the world that it accepts that the Moslems and non moslems can coexist in the region of HAN and their determination to respect the international norms of coexistence and neighbourliness.

n Understanding America : It is hard to predict the motive of the American administration towards the region of Horn Of Africa. The Americans know the public opinion in Somalia about the political events in the country more than the TNG and the

UIC and they evaluate this opinion so much that their political decision is always based

on it. They are more interested in fighting the spread of Islam in the region and they

undertake their campaign through the Anti terrorism campaign. Therefore they will

accept any new move by the TNG and UIC that will end the ordeal of the Somali people as far as they see it is in accordance with their new world order.

The TNG has no other option but to embrace all the opposition groups and with them present to the world a change in their approach of how to bring stability and normalcy to Somalia and this will include forcing Ethiopia to make a bald change in its stand in the Somali political crisis . The UIC also has no other option but to behave politically for the sake of the public interest.

n What is in it for every party: The TNG must think with clear mind the possibility of convincing the Ethiopian government to change its stand and accept undergroung friendship instead of this hand-in-hand brotherhood that provoked majority Somali citizens. Unless Ethiopia wishes to elongate the conflict period in Somalia , It must agree on the proposal that it must cooperate with TNG’s new endeavours to win the hearts of its citizens by changing its relationship with the Ethiopian government from full time defence guardian to good neighbourhood relationship . The TNG will then see that it abides with the security agreements it made with Ethiopia and every group will draw advantage from the pact.

Awes A.Osman

Stockholm, Sweden.

thenewsomaliagroup@yahoo.com

Ps :

*Lives were lost ,huge assets demolished and human progress handicapped during the world wars era for a cause that human being later regreted .

*The former communists realized that they had no valid reason to die for. We could have saved the tremendous loss if we thought properly and ahead of time with far reaching visions .

*Positive political thinking can save lives and prevent disasters. A well justified and result oriented decision is one that brings a permanent profit and makes all groups smile with happiness. We work with any group that has a dream of political change in the world.

Awes A.Osman

thenewsomaliagroup@yahoo.com

Stockholm , Sweden.

Awes A.Osman is the author of a new novel The skinless Goat in Somalia (ISBN10: 9185385271) published in Sweden by Axplock publishers ....

http://www.bokus.com/b/9789185385270.html

http://www.adlibris.com/se/product.aspx?isbn=9185385271

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