Maxaa Xiligan Keenay Dagaalka PP & TPLF?


Odhahda Maanta (Talk of the Town)
November 12, 2020, Los Angeles

Waa su’aasha cid kastiba isweydiinayso! R/W Abiy waxa soo ababiyey TPLF. Isaga oo 14-jir ah ayu ku biiray jabhadihii ay TPLF u samaysay Oromo (OPDO). Xata waxa uu aad u bartay afka Tigreega oo cid aan Tigree ahayniba aanay aqoon. Waxa uu markii dambe noqday kuwa dhiidhada ama radiyowga u haya ciidamada. Xirfad badan isaga oon helin ayuu sis dhakhsa ah u dalacay maadaama uu adeege fiican u ahaa TPLF. TPLF iyo R/W Abiy waa ceeshow milix. Hadaba xagay arintu iska qaban la’dahay?

Ma doorashada ay TPLF iskeed u qabsatay aaa dagaalka keenay? Aniga ilama aha. Sharciga Itoobiya iyo kan aduunka u yaala midna ku ma adeecayo in dagaal loo galo arimo noocan ah.Sababtuna waxay tahay khsaaraha ayaa kaweyn fa’iidada dagaalku keenayo (xaajada odhanaysa waa law and order iska ilow waa iska af-goobaasi).

Mana aha in dagaalku ku yimid amar diido dhinaca TPLF ka yimid. Kumana iman dagaalkani ciidamo federaka Itoobiya ka tirsan oo lagu dilay xeryaha ciidamada ee ku yaal Tigray dhexdeeda. Toban sababood oo la inoo lulayo oon dagalkan sabab looga dhigayo ahayn ayaan tibaaxi karnaa. Waxanse ku soo boodayaa sabata muhiimka ah ee R/W Abiy u ugu badheedhay dagaal dhimasho iyo barakac weyn keenaya, sumcadiisana laf jab e keenaya.

Kaligii talis vs Damograadi (authoritarian vs democratic): labadan nidaam waa labada nooc ee madaxdu adeegsadaan si ay xukunka u adkaystaan. Maamul marka uu cusub yahay, waxa awooda lagu adakaystaa (power consolidation) nidaamka kialigii taliska ama demograadiga. Kan demaqraadigu waa cimri dheeryahay waana waxa la yidhaa sustainable. Kan kaligii talisku waxa uu keenaa daganaansho la’an burbur iyo dhimasho, ugu dambeyna madaxda sare iyagaa u dhinta.

Taariikhda Itoobiya waxa sida qodxaha u daadsan nidaamka kaligii taliska ah. Menilik waxa uu awooda ka boobay Amiir Cali uu u bixiyey Ras Mika’eel, Xayle Silaasena Lij Ilyaas ayuu ka boobay; Mengistu Xayle Mariam waxa uu ka boobay Boqor Xayle Selaase; Mengistuna waxa ka boobay Meles.

In kasta aanu R/W Abiy boobin awooda, laakiin Xayle Mariyam oo ka yimid qowmiyad aan tun weyn lahayn ayuu kacdoon Oromo waday awooda kagala wareegay. Awooda uu helay R/W Abiyi ayaa markii hore ku timid si Demoqraadiga u dhow. Waxa hashiisku ahaa xiliga kala guurka in wada tashi iyo arin gorfayn dalka lagu wado. In loo simanyahay taakulaynta iyo dib u dhiska nidaamka siyaasiga ah ee Itoobiya.

Dhibta R/W Abiy qabsatay waxay tahay isaga oo arkay in nidaamka Demoqraadigu adeecayo hab ah in xisbiyada mucaaridka iyo dawladu ay shuraako ku yihiin lahaanshaha mustaqbalka dalka.
Nidaamka noocaasi uma cuntamin R/W Abiy. Waxa uu qaadan kariwaayey canaanta kaga timid Jawar iyo Baqale Garba- waanu xidhay; waxa u cuntami weyday in OLF tidhaa weli waxaanu aaminsanahay muqadasnimada qowmiyada Oromo – Iyana dagaal ayu uku qaaday; waxa uu xajiin ka dareemay saxaafada madaxa banana; waxa handadaad iyo shaqaaqo lagu furay Benishangul, Gumuz iyo ONLF oo handadaad qabow lagu wado.

Intaasiba waxay ka mid ahaayeen xeeladaha afka qalaad looyaqaan “power consolidation” ama awood urursi kaligii taliye.
1. Waxa Abiy uu adeegsaday nidaamka kaligii talisnimada ee awooda lagu sugo;
2. waxa u cuntamiwaayey nidaamkan ah demoqraadiga oo isagu isticmaala wada xaajood, isqancin iyo sharciga oo la dhowro.
3. Dagaalga TPLF lagu qaaday waa heerkii ugu dambeeyey ee awood ururisga Abiy (Abiy’s ultimate power consolidation).

Markay taariikhdu ahay 1993, waxa Addis Ababa ugu tagay Meles Zenwi Professor Samuel Huntington ooy dirtay USAID. Waxa uu Males u dajiyey una qeexay xeelada ugu sahlan ee awood urursiga oo ku salaysan waaqiciga itoobiya (Fiirso qoraalka Faysal Roble, Samuel Huntington: and the One-Dominant Party System, 1994). Samuel xiligaas waxa uu xog urursi ugu jiray buugiisa ah “Third Wave,” amd “Hirkii Sadexaad.” Waa dood odhanaysa in kaligii talisnimo oo kaliya wax lagu dhisi karo meelo qaar kood.

R/A Abiy maanta waxa uu isna dhaqan galinayaa xeeladii uu dajiyey Samuel Huntington. Duulaanka TPLF waa tilaabadii ugu dambeysay ee uu R/W Abiy qaadi lahaa sidii uu uga adkaan lahaa xoogii ugu dambeeyey ee hor taagnaa awood urursiga (power consolidation) ee ku wajahan dhisida nidaam kaligii talis ah.

Suaashu waxay tahay, marka laga reebo hamiga R/W Abiy eek u aadan awood urursi, maxaa uga shan iyo toban ah xidhiga, tacadiga, dhimashada iyo barakaca umadda 110 malyuun dhan ee Itoobiya ku nool? Jawaabtu waa “Zero,” “nada,” “eber,” “0.” Kooxaha u heesaya R/A waa in ay ogaadaan in ay xadhigii iyga iyo bulshadooda lagu daldali lahaa ay soohayaan.

Faysal Rooble